Active Implementation Set
Use these while planning or implementing smart-flow phase work.
Smart Flow Roadmap
Smart Money / Smart Flow Roadmap
Implementation-sized phases for turning smart-money detection into smart-flow inference: observations, evidence clusters, cautious hypotheses, confidence, alternatives, abstention, replay evaluation, and user-facing insight projections.
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Background Plans
These explain rationale, but do not add scope unless pulled into a phase doc and Beads issue.
Core Constraints
- Do not treat "smart money" as a canonical fact emitted by the system.
- Distinguish direct facts, evidence, hypotheses, confidence, alternatives, and abstention.
- Preserve evidence and uncertainty in storage, API, websocket, and UI surfaces.
- Keep Redis as hot cache only, not hidden baseline truth.
- Make replay evaluation the acceptance gate before expanding UI confidence.
- Keep historical or research-grade calibration as future work, not an MVP dependency.
Phase Sequence
| Phase | Beads issue | Depends on | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 - Contracts and vocabulary | islandflow-zxh.1 | None; safe parallel with islandflow-259.1 | Define evidence/hypothesis/insight contracts and retire canonical overconfidence. |
| 02 - Evidence clustering and features | islandflow-zxh.2 | islandflow-259.2 | Extract eligibility, evidence facts, clusters, and traceable features. |
| 03 - Hypothesis scoring and abstention | islandflow-zxh.3 | islandflow-259.3 | Score cautious hypotheses and represent abstention/alternatives. |
| 04 - Replay evaluation and golden tests | islandflow-zxh.4 | islandflow-259.4 | Validate derived outputs through deterministic replay and golden fixtures. |
| 05 - API/UI explainability | islandflow-zxh.5 | islandflow-259.5 | Expose evidence-backed insights and uncertainty to API, WS, and UI. |
| 99 - Future calibration | islandflow-zxh.6 | islandflow-zxh.5, islandflow-259.6 | Calibrate confidence and policy behavior later with richer datasets. |
PR Split Notes
islandflow-zxh.2.1 - Eligibility and evidence facts
Split out the direct fact and eligibility layer before clustering and feature vector work.
islandflow-zxh.2.2 - Clustering and feature vectors
Keep clustering and feature vector changes reviewable after the evidence vocabulary exists.
islandflow-zxh.3.1 - Hypothesis score vectors
Build scoring as a separate semantic layer, not as UI-ready certainty.
islandflow-zxh.3.2 - Abstention and insight projection
Represent alternatives, penalties, and abstention before exposing user-facing insight projections.
islandflow-zxh.5.1 - Evidence API and websocket surfaces
Expose evidence-backed contracts through transport before tuning the presentation layer.
islandflow-zxh.5.2 - UI explainability surfaces
Show evidence quality, confidence vs conviction, alternatives, abstention, and catalyst/noise context.
If an implementation PR crosses contracts, compute, storage, API, and UI in one change, stop and split it.
Matching Beads Epic
islandflow-zxh - Plan smart-money to smart-flow implementation phases.