Add smart-money option signal path and tape filters

This commit is contained in:
dirtydishes 2026-04-28 16:29:44 -04:00
parent 758f111d7e
commit 27b0a399e6
23 changed files with 1827 additions and 175 deletions

View file

@ -1,8 +1,14 @@
import { SP500_SYMBOLS, type OptionNBBO, type OptionPrint } from "@islandflow/types";
import {
SP500_SYMBOLS,
type OptionNBBO,
type OptionPrint,
type SyntheticMarketMode
} from "@islandflow/types";
import type { OptionIngestAdapter, OptionIngestHandlers } from "./types";
type SyntheticOptionsAdapterConfig = {
emitIntervalMs: number;
mode: SyntheticMarketMode;
};
type Burst = {
@ -17,17 +23,18 @@ type Burst = {
seed: number;
};
const SYNTHETIC_SYMBOLS = [
"SPY",
...SP500_SYMBOLS.filter((symbol) => symbol !== "SPY")
];
const SYNTHETIC_SYMBOLS = ["SPY", ...(SP500_SYMBOLS as readonly string[])];
const MS_PER_DAY = 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000;
const EXPIRY_OFFSETS = [0, 1, 7, 14, 28, 45, 60, 90];
const EXCHANGES = ["CBOE", "PHLX", "ISE", "ARCA", "BOX", "MIAX"];
const CONDITIONS = ["SWEEP", "ISO", "FILL", "TEST"];
const BURST_RUN_RANGE: [number, number] = [2, 4];
type SyntheticOptionsProfile = {
burstRunRange: [number, number];
scenarios: Scenario[];
pricePlacements: Record<string, WeightedValue<PricePlacement>[]>;
};
type PricePlacement = "AA" | "A" | "B" | "BB";
type PricePlacement = "AA" | "A" | "MID" | "B" | "BB";
type WeightedValue<T> = {
value: T;
@ -45,7 +52,70 @@ type Scenario = {
conditions?: string[];
};
const SCENARIOS: Scenario[] = [
const REALISTIC_SCENARIOS: Scenario[] = [
{
id: "ask_lift",
weight: 18,
right: "either",
countRange: [1, 2],
sizeRange: [30, 180],
premiumRange: [9_000, 35_000],
priceTrend: "flat",
conditions: ["FILL"]
},
{
id: "mid_block",
weight: 14,
right: "either",
countRange: [1, 2],
sizeRange: [120, 480],
premiumRange: [12_000, 45_000],
priceTrend: "flat",
conditions: ["FILL"]
},
{
id: "bullish_sweep",
weight: 8,
right: "C",
countRange: [2, 3],
sizeRange: [180, 520],
premiumRange: [25_000, 90_000],
priceTrend: "up",
conditions: ["SWEEP"]
},
{
id: "bearish_sweep",
weight: 8,
right: "P",
countRange: [2, 3],
sizeRange: [180, 520],
premiumRange: [25_000, 90_000],
priceTrend: "up",
conditions: ["SWEEP"]
},
{
id: "contract_spike",
weight: 6,
right: "either",
countRange: [2, 3],
sizeRange: [500, 900],
premiumRange: [18_000, 70_000],
priceTrend: "flat",
conditions: ["ISO"]
},
{
id: "noise",
weight: 46,
right: "either",
countRange: [1, 2],
sizeRange: [5, 60],
premiumRange: [500, 6_000],
priceTrend: "flat",
conditions: ["FILL"]
}
];
const ACTIVE_SCENARIOS: Scenario[] = [
{
id: "bullish_sweep",
weight: 35,
@ -88,7 +158,50 @@ const SCENARIOS: Scenario[] = [
}
];
const PRICE_PLACEMENTS: Record<string, WeightedValue<PricePlacement>[]> = {
const REALISTIC_PRICE_PLACEMENTS: Record<string, WeightedValue<PricePlacement>[]> = {
ask_lift: [
{ value: "A", weight: 45 },
{ value: "AA", weight: 20 },
{ value: "MID", weight: 25 },
{ value: "B", weight: 8 },
{ value: "BB", weight: 2 }
],
mid_block: [
{ value: "MID", weight: 60 },
{ value: "A", weight: 20 },
{ value: "B", weight: 20 }
],
bullish_sweep: [
{ value: "AA", weight: 20 },
{ value: "A", weight: 50 },
{ value: "MID", weight: 15 },
{ value: "B", weight: 10 },
{ value: "BB", weight: 5 }
],
bearish_sweep: [
{ value: "AA", weight: 10 },
{ value: "A", weight: 20 },
{ value: "MID", weight: 15 },
{ value: "B", weight: 35 },
{ value: "BB", weight: 20 }
],
contract_spike: [
{ value: "A", weight: 25 },
{ value: "MID", weight: 40 },
{ value: "B", weight: 25 },
{ value: "AA", weight: 5 },
{ value: "BB", weight: 5 }
],
noise: [
{ value: "MID", weight: 40 },
{ value: "A", weight: 20 },
{ value: "B", weight: 20 },
{ value: "AA", weight: 10 },
{ value: "BB", weight: 10 }
]
};
const ACTIVE_PRICE_PLACEMENTS: Record<string, WeightedValue<PricePlacement>[]> = {
bullish_sweep: [
{ value: "AA", weight: 25 },
{ value: "A", weight: 40 },
@ -115,7 +228,52 @@ const PRICE_PLACEMENTS: Record<string, WeightedValue<PricePlacement>[]> = {
]
};
const PLACEMENT_PATTERN: PricePlacement[] = ["A", "AA", "B", "BB"];
const FIREHOSE_PRICE_PLACEMENTS: Record<string, WeightedValue<PricePlacement>[]> = {
...ACTIVE_PRICE_PLACEMENTS,
noise: [
{ value: "A", weight: 20 },
{ value: "AA", weight: 20 },
{ value: "MID", weight: 20 },
{ value: "B", weight: 20 },
{ value: "BB", weight: 20 }
]
};
const PLACEMENT_PATTERN: PricePlacement[] = ["A", "AA", "MID", "B", "BB"];
const SYNTHETIC_PROFILES: Record<SyntheticMarketMode, SyntheticOptionsProfile> = {
realistic: {
burstRunRange: [1, 2],
scenarios: REALISTIC_SCENARIOS,
pricePlacements: REALISTIC_PRICE_PLACEMENTS
},
active: {
burstRunRange: [2, 4],
scenarios: ACTIVE_SCENARIOS,
pricePlacements: ACTIVE_PRICE_PLACEMENTS
},
firehose: {
burstRunRange: [4, 7],
scenarios: ACTIVE_SCENARIOS.map((scenario): Scenario =>
scenario.id === "noise"
? {
...scenario,
weight: 20,
countRange: [5, 8],
sizeRange: [20, 300],
premiumRange: [800, 12_000]
}
: {
...scenario,
weight: scenario.weight + 10,
countRange: [scenario.countRange[0] + 2, scenario.countRange[1] + 3],
sizeRange: [scenario.sizeRange[0], scenario.sizeRange[1] * 2],
premiumRange: [scenario.premiumRange[0], scenario.premiumRange[1] * 1.5]
}
),
pricePlacements: FIREHOSE_PRICE_PLACEMENTS
}
};
const pick = <T,>(items: T[], seed: number): T => {
return items[Math.abs(seed) % items.length];
@ -153,8 +311,12 @@ const pickWeightedValue = <T>(items: WeightedValue<T>[], seed: number): T => {
return pickWeighted(items, seed).value;
};
const pickPlacement = (burst: Burst, index: number): PricePlacement => {
const placementOptions = PRICE_PLACEMENTS[burst.scenarioId] ?? PRICE_PLACEMENTS.noise;
const pickPlacement = (
burst: Burst,
index: number,
profile: SyntheticOptionsProfile
): PricePlacement => {
const placementOptions = profile.pricePlacements[burst.scenarioId] ?? profile.pricePlacements.noise;
const offset = Math.abs(burst.seed) % PLACEMENT_PATTERN.length;
if (index < PLACEMENT_PATTERN.length) {
return PLACEMENT_PATTERN[(offset + index) % PLACEMENT_PATTERN.length];
@ -180,11 +342,11 @@ const formatExpiry = (now: number, offsetDays: number): string => {
return expiryDate.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
};
const buildBurst = (burstIndex: number, now: number): Burst => {
const buildBurst = (burstIndex: number, now: number, profile: SyntheticOptionsProfile): Burst => {
const symbol = SYNTHETIC_SYMBOLS[burstIndex % SYNTHETIC_SYMBOLS.length];
const symbolHash = hashSymbol(symbol);
const seed = symbolHash + burstIndex * 7;
const scenario = pickWeighted(SCENARIOS, seed);
const scenario = pickWeighted(profile.scenarios, seed);
const baseUnderlying = 30 + (symbolHash % 470);
const expiryOffset = pick(EXPIRY_OFFSETS, symbolHash + burstIndex);
const expiry = formatExpiry(now, expiryOffset);
@ -231,6 +393,7 @@ const buildBurst = (burstIndex: number, now: number): Burst => {
export const createSyntheticOptionsAdapter = (
config: SyntheticOptionsAdapterConfig
): OptionIngestAdapter => {
const profile = SYNTHETIC_PROFILES[config.mode];
return {
name: "synthetic",
start: (handlers: OptionIngestHandlers) => {
@ -250,8 +413,12 @@ export const createSyntheticOptionsAdapter = (
const now = Date.now();
if (!currentBurst || remainingRuns <= 0) {
burstIndex += 1;
currentBurst = buildBurst(burstIndex, now);
remainingRuns = pickInt(BURST_RUN_RANGE[0], BURST_RUN_RANGE[1], burstIndex * 23);
currentBurst = buildBurst(burstIndex, now, profile);
remainingRuns = pickInt(
profile.burstRunRange[0],
profile.burstRunRange[1],
burstIndex * 23
);
}
const burst = currentBurst;
@ -267,13 +434,15 @@ export const createSyntheticOptionsAdapter = (
const bid = Math.max(0.01, Number((mid - spread / 2).toFixed(2)));
const ask = Math.max(bid + 0.01, Number((mid + spread / 2).toFixed(2)));
const tick = Math.max(0.01, Number((spread * 0.25).toFixed(2)));
const placement = pickPlacement(burst, i);
const placement = pickPlacement(burst, i, profile);
let tradePrice = mid;
if (placement === "AA") {
tradePrice = ask + tick;
} else if (placement === "A") {
tradePrice = ask;
} else if (placement === "MID") {
tradePrice = mid;
} else if (placement === "BB") {
tradePrice = Math.max(0.01, bid - tick);
} else {