document research basis for phase plans
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This roadmap breaks `docs/plans/smart-flow-architecture-review.md` into implementation-sized phases. The recommended direction is Option B: keep the working stack, but rebuild the domain pipeline around observations, evidence clusters, cautious hypotheses, confidence, alternatives, abstention, replay evaluation, and user-facing insight projections.
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## Source Documents
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- Architecture plan: [`docs/plans/smart-flow-architecture-review.md`](../../plans/smart-flow-architecture-review.md)
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- Research report: [`docs/research-docs/smart-flow-market-mechanics.md`](../../research-docs/smart-flow-market-mechanics.md)
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- Research architecture review copy: [`docs/research-docs/smart-flow-architecture-review.md`](../../research-docs/smart-flow-architecture-review.md)
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The research documents are background and rationale only. Scope comes from the Beads issue and the phase document.
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## Core Constraints
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- Do not treat "smart money" as a canonical fact emitted by the system.
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