add readable implementation roadmap docs
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docs/implementation/smart-money/00-roadmap.html
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docs/implementation/smart-money/00-roadmap.html
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</head>
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<body>
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<main>
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<header class="hero">
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<div>
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<p class="kicker">Smart Flow Roadmap</p>
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<h1>Smart Money / Smart Flow Roadmap</h1>
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<p class="summary">
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Implementation-sized phases for turning smart-money detection into smart-flow inference:
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observations, evidence clusters, cautious hypotheses, confidence, alternatives, abstention,
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replay evaluation, and user-facing insight projections.
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</p>
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<div class="meta">
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<span class="chip primary">Beads islandflow-zxh</span>
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<span class="chip good">Recommended: Option B</span>
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<span class="chip">MVP before calibration</span>
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</div>
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</div>
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<aside class="decision">
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<span class="label">Scope Rule</span>
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<strong>Research is rationale. Beads and phase docs define implementation scope.</strong>
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<p>Do not treat smart money as a canonical fact emitted by the system.</p>
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</aside>
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</header>
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<div class="toc" aria-label="Table of contents">
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<p class="toc-title">Jump to</p>
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<nav>
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<a href="#links">Linked Docs</a>
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<a href="#constraints">Core Constraints</a>
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<a href="#sequence">Phase Sequence</a>
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<a href="#splits">PR Splits</a>
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<a href="#epic">Matching Epic</a>
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</nav>
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</div>
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<section id="links">
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<h2>Linked Docs</h2>
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<div class="grid two">
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<article class="panel">
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<div class="panel-body">
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<h3>Active Implementation Set</h3>
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<p>Use these while planning or implementing smart-flow phase work.</p>
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<div class="link-row">
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<a class="chip primary" href="../index.html">Implementation overview</a>
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<a class="chip" href="index.html">Full phase dossier</a>
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<a class="chip" href="00-roadmap.md">Roadmap Markdown</a>
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</div>
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</div>
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</article>
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<article class="panel">
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<div class="panel-body">
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<h3>Background Plans</h3>
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<p>These explain rationale, but do not add scope unless pulled into a phase doc and Beads issue.</p>
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<div class="link-row">
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<a class="chip" href="../../plans/smart-flow-architecture-review.html">Architecture HTML</a>
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<a class="chip" href="../../plans/smart-flow-architecture-review.md">Architecture Markdown</a>
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<a class="chip" href="../../research-docs/smart-flow-market-mechanics.md">Market mechanics research</a>
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</div>
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</div>
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</article>
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</div>
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</section>
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<section id="constraints">
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<h2>Core Constraints</h2>
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<div class="panel">
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<div class="panel-body">
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<ul class="compact-list">
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<li>Do not treat "smart money" as a canonical fact emitted by the system.</li>
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<li>Distinguish direct facts, evidence, hypotheses, confidence, alternatives, and abstention.</li>
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<li>Preserve evidence and uncertainty in storage, API, websocket, and UI surfaces.</li>
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<li>Keep Redis as hot cache only, not hidden baseline truth.</li>
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<li>Make replay evaluation the acceptance gate before expanding UI confidence.</li>
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<li>Keep historical or research-grade calibration as future work, not an MVP dependency.</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<section id="sequence">
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<h2>Phase Sequence</h2>
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<div class="table-wrap">
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<table>
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<thead>
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<tr>
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<th>Phase</th>
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<th>Beads issue</th>
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<th>Depends on</th>
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<th>Purpose</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr><td>01 - Contracts and vocabulary</td><td><code>islandflow-zxh.1</code></td><td>None; safe parallel with <code>islandflow-259.1</code></td><td>Define evidence/hypothesis/insight contracts and retire canonical overconfidence.</td></tr>
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<tr><td>02 - Evidence clustering and features</td><td><code>islandflow-zxh.2</code></td><td><code>islandflow-259.2</code></td><td>Extract eligibility, evidence facts, clusters, and traceable features.</td></tr>
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<tr><td>03 - Hypothesis scoring and abstention</td><td><code>islandflow-zxh.3</code></td><td><code>islandflow-259.3</code></td><td>Score cautious hypotheses and represent abstention/alternatives.</td></tr>
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<tr><td>04 - Replay evaluation and golden tests</td><td><code>islandflow-zxh.4</code></td><td><code>islandflow-259.4</code></td><td>Validate derived outputs through deterministic replay and golden fixtures.</td></tr>
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<tr><td>05 - API/UI explainability</td><td><code>islandflow-zxh.5</code></td><td><code>islandflow-259.5</code></td><td>Expose evidence-backed insights and uncertainty to API, WS, and UI.</td></tr>
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<tr><td>99 - Future calibration</td><td><code>islandflow-zxh.6</code></td><td><code>islandflow-zxh.5</code>, <code>islandflow-259.6</code></td><td>Calibrate confidence and policy behavior later with richer datasets.</td></tr>
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</tbody>
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</table>
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</div>
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</section>
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<section id="splits">
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<h2>PR Split Notes</h2>
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<div class="phase-stack">
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<article class="phase">
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<span class="phase-id">Phase 02a</span>
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<h3><code>islandflow-zxh.2.1</code> - Eligibility and evidence facts</h3>
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<p>Split out the direct fact and eligibility layer before clustering and feature vector work.</p>
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</article>
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<article class="phase">
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<span class="phase-id">Phase 02b</span>
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<h3><code>islandflow-zxh.2.2</code> - Clustering and feature vectors</h3>
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<p>Keep clustering and feature vector changes reviewable after the evidence vocabulary exists.</p>
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</article>
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<article class="phase">
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<span class="phase-id">Phase 03a</span>
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<h3><code>islandflow-zxh.3.1</code> - Hypothesis score vectors</h3>
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<p>Build scoring as a separate semantic layer, not as UI-ready certainty.</p>
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</article>
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<article class="phase">
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<span class="phase-id">Phase 03b</span>
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<h3><code>islandflow-zxh.3.2</code> - Abstention and insight projection</h3>
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<p>Represent alternatives, penalties, and abstention before exposing user-facing insight projections.</p>
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</article>
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<article class="phase">
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<span class="phase-id">Phase 05a</span>
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<h3><code>islandflow-zxh.5.1</code> - Evidence API and websocket surfaces</h3>
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<p>Expose evidence-backed contracts through transport before tuning the presentation layer.</p>
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</article>
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<article class="phase">
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<span class="phase-id">Phase 05b</span>
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<h3><code>islandflow-zxh.5.2</code> - UI explainability surfaces</h3>
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<p>Show evidence quality, confidence vs conviction, alternatives, abstention, and catalyst/noise context.</p>
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</article>
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</div>
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<p class="summary">
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If an implementation PR crosses contracts, compute, storage, API, and UI in one change, stop and split it.
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</p>
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</section>
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<section id="epic">
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<h2>Matching Beads Epic</h2>
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<div class="panel">
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<div class="panel-body">
|
||||
<p><code>islandflow-zxh</code> - Plan smart-money to smart-flow implementation phases.</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</section>
|
||||
|
||||
<footer>
|
||||
HTML companion for docs/implementation/smart-money/00-roadmap.md. Source Markdown remains the active editable document.
|
||||
</footer>
|
||||
</main>
|
||||
</body>
|
||||
</html>
|
||||
|
|
@ -411,6 +411,9 @@ tr:last-child td { border-bottom: 0; }
|
|||
<span class="issue-chip">Beads islandflow-zxh</span>
|
||||
<span class="status-chip">7 source docs</span>
|
||||
<span class="status-chip">No app code</span>
|
||||
<a class="status-chip" href="../index.html">Implementation overview</a>
|
||||
<a class="status-chip" href="00-roadmap.html">Roadmap HTML</a>
|
||||
<a class="status-chip" href="../../plans/smart-flow-architecture-review.html">Architecture HTML</a>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</header>
|
||||
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
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Reference in a new issue