Detect option rolls and emit roll classifier
This commit is contained in:
dirtydishes
parent
fe6aef5fbc
commit
a82db56ab6
7 changed files with 378 additions and 16 deletions
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@ -636,6 +636,104 @@ const buildLadderHit = (
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};
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};
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const buildRollHit = (packet: FlowPacket, config: ClassifierConfig): ClassifierHit | null => {
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const structureType = getStringFeature(packet, "structure_type");
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if (structureType !== "roll") {
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return null;
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}
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const structureRights = getStringFeature(packet, "structure_rights");
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if (structureRights !== "C" && structureRights !== "P") {
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return null;
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}
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const activity = getLargeActivity(packet, config);
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const qualifies = activity.totalPremium >= config.spikeMinPremium || activity.totalSize >= config.spikeMinSize;
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if (!qualifies) {
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return null;
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}
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const { coverage, aggressiveBuyRatio, aggressiveSellRatio, aggressiveRatio } =
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getAggressorContext(packet);
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const fromExpiry = getStringFeature(packet, "roll_from_expiry") || "";
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const toExpiry = getStringFeature(packet, "roll_to_expiry") || "";
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const getOptionalNumber = (key: string): number | null => {
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const value = packet.features[key];
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return typeof value === "number" && Number.isFinite(value) ? value : null;
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};
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const fromStrike = getOptionalNumber("roll_from_strike");
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const toStrike = getOptionalNumber("roll_to_strike");
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const strikeDelta = getOptionalNumber("roll_strike_delta") ?? 0;
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const expiryDaysDelta = getOptionalNumber("roll_expiry_days_delta");
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const hasStrikePair = fromStrike !== null && toStrike !== null;
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const hasExpiryPair = Boolean(fromExpiry) && Boolean(toExpiry);
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let rollFlavor = "roll out";
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if (hasStrikePair) {
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if (strikeDelta > 0.0001) {
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rollFlavor = "roll out and up";
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} else if (strikeDelta < -0.0001) {
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rollFlavor = "roll out and down";
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}
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}
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let direction: "bullish" | "bearish" | "neutral" = "neutral";
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if (hasStrikePair) {
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if (structureRights === "C") {
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direction = strikeDelta > 0.0001 ? "bullish" : strikeDelta < -0.0001 ? "bearish" : "neutral";
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} else {
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direction = strikeDelta > 0.0001 ? "bearish" : strikeDelta < -0.0001 ? "bullish" : "neutral";
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}
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}
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let confidence = 0.5;
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if (activity.totalPremium >= config.spikeMinPremium * 2) {
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confidence += 0.1;
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}
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if (activity.totalSize >= config.spikeMinSize * 2) {
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confidence += 0.05;
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}
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if (hasStrikePair && Math.abs(strikeDelta) > 0.0001) {
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confidence += 0.05;
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}
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if (hasExpiryPair && expiryDaysDelta !== null && expiryDaysDelta >= 7) {
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confidence += 0.05;
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}
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const aggressor = applyAggressorAdjustment(confidence, coverage, aggressiveRatio, config);
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confidence = clamp(aggressor.confidence, 0, 0.85);
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const expiryNote = hasExpiryPair
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? `Expiries: ${fromExpiry} -> ${toExpiry}${
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expiryDaysDelta !== null && expiryDaysDelta !== 0 ? ` (${Math.round(expiryDaysDelta)}d)` : ""
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}.`
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: "Expiry pairing unavailable.";
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const strikeNote = hasStrikePair
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? `Strikes: ${fromStrike} -> ${toStrike} (delta ${strikeDelta}).`
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: "Strike pairing unavailable.";
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const skewNote = `Aggressor skew: buy ${formatPct(aggressiveBuyRatio)}, sell ${formatPct(
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aggressiveSellRatio
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)}.`;
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return {
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classifier_id: "roll_up_down_out",
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confidence,
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direction,
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explanations: [
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`Consistent with ${rollFlavor}: ${activity.count} prints in ${Math.round(activity.windowMs)}ms for ${packet.features.underlying_id ?? packet.id}.`,
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expiryNote,
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strikeNote,
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`Premium ${formatUsd(activity.totalPremium)} across ${Math.round(activity.totalSize)} contracts.`,
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`Thresholds: >=${config.spikeMinSize} contracts or >=${formatUsd(config.spikeMinPremium)} premium.`,
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skewNote,
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aggressor.note
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]
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};
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};
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const buildFarDatedHit = (
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packet: FlowPacket,
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contract: ParsedContract,
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@ -774,6 +872,11 @@ export const evaluateClassifiers = (
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hits.push(ladderHit);
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}
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const rollHit = buildRollHit(packet, config);
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if (rollHit) {
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hits.push(rollHit);
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}
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return hits;
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}
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@ -223,6 +223,7 @@ const nbboCache = new Map<string, OptionNBBO>();
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const equityQuoteCache = new Map<string, EquityQuote>();
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const darkInferenceState = createDarkInferenceState();
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const recentLegsByKey = new Map<string, LegEvidence[]>();
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const recentLegsByRoot = new Map<string, LegEvidence[]>();
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const recentStructureEmits = new Map<string, number>();
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const MAX_RECENT_LEGS = 20;
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@ -301,6 +302,10 @@ const buildLegKey = (leg: ContractLeg): string => {
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return `${leg.root}:${leg.expiry}`;
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};
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const buildRootKey = (leg: ContractLeg): string => {
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return leg.root;
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};
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const isWithinStructureWindow = (anchorTs: number, candidateTs: number): boolean => {
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return Math.abs(anchorTs - candidateTs) <= env.CLUSTER_WINDOW_MS;
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};
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@ -321,6 +326,22 @@ const storeRecentLeg = (leg: LegEvidence, anchorTs: number): void => {
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recentLegsByKey.set(key, next);
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};
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const collectRecentRootLegs = (key: string, anchorTs: number, excludeId: string): LegEvidence[] => {
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const recent = recentLegsByRoot.get(key) ?? [];
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const filtered = recent.filter(
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(leg) => leg.contractId !== excludeId && isWithinStructureWindow(anchorTs, leg.endTs)
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);
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recentLegsByRoot.set(key, filtered);
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return filtered;
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};
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const storeRecentRootLeg = (leg: LegEvidence, anchorTs: number): void => {
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const key = buildRootKey(leg);
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const recent = collectRecentRootLegs(key, anchorTs, "");
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const next = [leg, ...recent].slice(0, MAX_RECENT_LEGS);
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recentLegsByRoot.set(key, next);
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};
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const collectActiveLegs = (
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key: string,
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anchorTs: number,
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@ -346,7 +367,32 @@ const collectActiveLegs = (
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return legs;
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};
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const STRUCTURE_TYPES = new Set(["straddle", "strangle", "vertical", "ladder"]);
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const collectActiveRootLegs = (
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key: string,
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anchorTs: number,
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excludeId: string
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): LegEvidence[] => {
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const legs: LegEvidence[] = [];
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for (const [contractId, cluster] of clusters) {
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if (contractId === excludeId) {
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continue;
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}
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const leg = buildLegFromCluster(cluster);
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if (!leg) {
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continue;
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}
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if (buildRootKey(leg) !== key) {
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continue;
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}
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if (!isWithinStructureWindow(anchorTs, leg.endTs)) {
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continue;
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}
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legs.push(leg);
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}
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return legs;
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};
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const STRUCTURE_TYPES = new Set(["straddle", "strangle", "vertical", "ladder", "roll"]);
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const MAX_RECENT_STRUCTURE_EMITS = 2000;
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const pruneRecentStructureEmits = (anchorTs: number): void => {
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@ -691,7 +737,20 @@ const flushCluster = async (
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}
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await emitStructurePacketIfNeeded(clickhouse, js, legs, summary, currentLeg.contractId);
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const rootKey = buildRootKey(currentLeg);
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const rootCandidates = [
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...collectRecentRootLegs(rootKey, anchorTs, currentLeg.contractId),
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...collectActiveRootLegs(rootKey, anchorTs, currentLeg.contractId)
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];
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const rollLegs = [currentLeg, ...rootCandidates];
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const rollSummary = summarizeStructure(rollLegs);
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if (rollSummary?.type === "roll") {
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await emitStructurePacketIfNeeded(clickhouse, js, rollLegs, rollSummary, currentLeg.contractId);
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}
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storeRecentLeg(currentLeg, anchorTs);
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storeRecentRootLeg(currentLeg, anchorTs);
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}
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if (!nbboJoin.nbbo) {
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@ -27,6 +27,14 @@ export type StructurePacketPlan = {
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bucketStartTs: number;
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root: string;
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pseudoContractId: string;
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expiries: string[];
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strikes: number[];
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roll_from_expiry: string | null;
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roll_to_expiry: string | null;
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roll_from_strike: number | null;
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roll_to_strike: number | null;
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roll_strike_delta: number | null;
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roll_expiry_days_delta: number | null;
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startTs: number;
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endTs: number;
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members: string[];
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@ -90,6 +98,40 @@ const uniqueSorted = (values: string[]): string[] => {
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return Array.from(new Set(values)).sort();
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};
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const uniqueSortedNumbers = (values: number[]): number[] => {
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return Array.from(new Set(values)).sort((a, b) => a - b);
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};
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const medianNumber = (values: number[]): number | null => {
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if (values.length === 0) {
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return null;
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}
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const sorted = values.slice().sort((a, b) => a - b);
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const mid = Math.floor(sorted.length / 2);
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if (sorted.length % 2 === 1) {
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return sorted[mid] ?? null;
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}
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const a = sorted[mid - 1];
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const b = sorted[mid];
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if (!Number.isFinite(a) || !Number.isFinite(b)) {
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return null;
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}
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return (a + b) / 2;
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};
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const dayDiff = (from: string | null, to: string | null): number | null => {
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if (!from || !to) {
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return null;
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}
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const fromTs = Date.parse(`${from}T00:00:00Z`);
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const toTs = Date.parse(`${to}T00:00:00Z`);
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if (!Number.isFinite(fromTs) || !Number.isFinite(toTs)) {
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return null;
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}
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const diffMs = toTs - fromTs;
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return Math.round(diffMs / 86_400_000);
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};
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export const shouldEmitStructurePacket = (legs: LegEvidence[], currentLegContractId: string): boolean => {
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if (legs.length < 2) {
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return false;
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@ -113,17 +155,55 @@ export const planStructurePacket = (
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return null;
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}
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const root = legs[0]?.root;
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const expiry = legs[0]?.expiry;
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if (!root || !expiry) {
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const rootRaw = legs[0]?.root;
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if (!rootRaw) {
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return null;
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}
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const expiries = uniqueSorted(legs.map((leg) => leg.expiry));
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const expiry = expiries[0];
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if (!expiry) {
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return null;
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}
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const strikes = uniqueSortedNumbers(legs.map((leg) => leg.strike));
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let rollFromExpiry: string | null = null;
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let rollToExpiry: string | null = null;
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let rollFromStrike: number | null = null;
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let rollToStrike: number | null = null;
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let rollStrikeDelta: number | null = null;
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let rollExpiryDaysDelta: number | null = null;
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if (summary.type === "roll" && expiries.length >= 2) {
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rollFromExpiry = expiries[0] ?? null;
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rollToExpiry = expiries[expiries.length - 1] ?? null;
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const strikesByExpiry = new Map<string, number[]>();
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for (const leg of legs) {
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const bucket = strikesByExpiry.get(leg.expiry);
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if (bucket) {
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bucket.push(leg.strike);
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} else {
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strikesByExpiry.set(leg.expiry, [leg.strike]);
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}
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}
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rollFromStrike = medianNumber(strikesByExpiry.get(rollFromExpiry) ?? []) ?? null;
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rollToStrike = medianNumber(strikesByExpiry.get(rollToExpiry) ?? []) ?? null;
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if (rollFromStrike !== null && rollToStrike !== null) {
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rollStrikeDelta = roundTo(rollToStrike - rollFromStrike, 4);
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}
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rollExpiryDaysDelta = dayDiff(rollFromExpiry, rollToExpiry);
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}
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const contractIds = uniqueSorted(legs.map((leg) => leg.contractId));
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const startTs = legs.reduce((min, leg) => Math.min(min, leg.startTs), Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY);
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const endTs = legs.reduce((max, leg) => Math.max(max, leg.endTs), 0);
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const bucketStartTs = bucketTs(startTs, clusterWindowMs);
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const pseudoContractId = buildPseudoContractId(root, expiry, summary.type);
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const pseudoContractId = buildPseudoContractId(rootRaw, expiry, summary.type);
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const id = `flowpacket:${pseudoContractId}:${bucketStartTs}:${contractIds.join("|")}`;
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const dedupeKey = `${pseudoContractId}:${bucketStartTs}:${contractIds.join("|")}`;
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@ -149,8 +229,16 @@ export const planStructurePacket = (
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id,
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dedupeKey,
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bucketStartTs,
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root: root.trim().toUpperCase(),
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root: rootRaw.trim().toUpperCase(),
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pseudoContractId,
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expiries,
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strikes,
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roll_from_expiry: rollFromExpiry,
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roll_to_expiry: rollToExpiry,
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roll_from_strike: rollFromStrike,
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roll_to_strike: rollToStrike,
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roll_strike_delta: rollStrikeDelta,
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roll_expiry_days_delta: rollExpiryDaysDelta,
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startTs: Number.isFinite(startTs) ? startTs : 0,
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endTs,
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members,
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@ -192,9 +280,33 @@ export const buildStructureFlowPacket = (
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structure_strikes: summary.strikes,
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structure_strike_span: roundTo(summary.strikeSpan),
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structure_rights: summary.rights,
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structure_contract_ids: summary.contractIds.join(",")
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structure_contract_ids: summary.contractIds.join(","),
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structure_expiries_count: plan.expiries.length,
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structure_expiries: plan.expiries.join(","),
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structure_strikes_list: plan.strikes.join(",")
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};
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if (summary.type === "roll") {
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if (plan.roll_from_expiry) {
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features.roll_from_expiry = plan.roll_from_expiry;
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}
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if (plan.roll_to_expiry) {
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features.roll_to_expiry = plan.roll_to_expiry;
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}
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if (plan.roll_from_strike !== null) {
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features.roll_from_strike = plan.roll_from_strike;
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}
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if (plan.roll_to_strike !== null) {
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features.roll_to_strike = plan.roll_to_strike;
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}
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if (plan.roll_strike_delta !== null) {
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features.roll_strike_delta = plan.roll_strike_delta;
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}
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if (plan.roll_expiry_days_delta !== null) {
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features.roll_expiry_days_delta = plan.roll_expiry_days_delta;
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}
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}
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// These are aggregate counts across the legs. We do not attach rolling z-scores
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// (baseline is per-contract), so structure packets default to absolute thresholds.
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features.nbbo_aa_count = plan.placements.aa;
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@ -22,9 +22,11 @@ export const summarizeStructure = (legs: ContractLeg[]): StructureSummary | null
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const strikes = Array.from(new Set(legs.map((leg) => leg.strike))).sort((a, b) => a - b);
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const rights = new Set(legs.map((leg) => leg.right));
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const expiries = new Set(legs.map((leg) => leg.expiry));
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const strikeSpan = strikes.length >= 2 ? strikes[strikes.length - 1] - strikes[0] : 0;
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let type = "multi_leg";
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if (expiries.size === 1) {
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if (rights.size === 2 && strikes.length === 1) {
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type = "straddle";
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} else if (rights.size === 2 && strikes.length >= 2) {
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@ -34,6 +36,11 @@ export const summarizeStructure = (legs: ContractLeg[]): StructureSummary | null
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} else if (rights.size === 1 && strikes.length >= 3) {
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type = "ladder";
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}
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} else if (rights.size === 1 && expiries.size === 2) {
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// Conservative roll heuristic: same right, exactly two expiries within the burst window.
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// We do not attempt to infer the exact strategy beyond roll-style behavior.
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type = "roll";
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}
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return {
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type,
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@ -194,6 +194,32 @@ describe("classifier structure and positioning signals", () => {
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expect(hits.some((hit) => hit.classifier_id === "ladder_accumulation")).toBe(true);
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});
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test("roll classifier triggers on cross-expiry structure packets", () => {
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const packet = buildPacket({
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packet_kind: "structure",
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structure_type: "roll",
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structure_legs: 2,
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structure_strikes: 2,
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structure_rights: "C",
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structure_strike_span: 5,
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total_premium: 70_000,
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total_size: 800,
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nbbo_coverage_ratio: 0.85,
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nbbo_aggressive_buy_ratio: 0.7,
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nbbo_aggressive_sell_ratio: 0.3,
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roll_from_expiry: "2025-01-17",
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roll_to_expiry: "2025-02-21",
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roll_from_strike: 450,
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roll_to_strike: 455,
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roll_strike_delta: 5,
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roll_expiry_days_delta: 35
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});
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const hits = evaluateClassifiers(packet, baseConfig);
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const hit = hits.find((candidate) => candidate.classifier_id === "roll_up_down_out");
|
||||
expect(hit).toBeTruthy();
|
||||
expect(hit?.direction).toBe("bullish");
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
test("far-dated conviction triggers on 60DTE threshold", () => {
|
||||
const packet = buildPacket({
|
||||
option_contract_id: "SPY-2024-04-19-450-C",
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -22,7 +22,7 @@ const leg = (input: Partial<LegEvidence> & Pick<LegEvidence, "contractId" | "rig
|
|||
return {
|
||||
contractId: input.contractId,
|
||||
root: "SPY",
|
||||
expiry: "2025-01-17",
|
||||
expiry: input.expiry ?? "2025-01-17",
|
||||
right: input.right,
|
||||
strike: input.strike,
|
||||
startTs: input.startTs ?? 1000,
|
||||
|
|
@ -134,4 +134,43 @@ describe("structure packet planning", () => {
|
|||
// 2 aggressive (AA + BB) out of 3 classified (AA + BB + MID)
|
||||
expect(packet.features.nbbo_aggressive_ratio).toBeCloseTo(2 / 3, 4);
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
test("includes roll metadata when structure type is roll", () => {
|
||||
const near = leg({
|
||||
contractId: "SPY-2025-01-17-450-C",
|
||||
right: "C",
|
||||
strike: 450,
|
||||
expiry: "2025-01-17",
|
||||
members: ["p1"],
|
||||
totalSize: 10,
|
||||
totalPremium: 2000,
|
||||
placements: placements({ aa: 1 })
|
||||
});
|
||||
const far = leg({
|
||||
contractId: "SPY-2025-02-21-455-C",
|
||||
right: "C",
|
||||
strike: 455,
|
||||
expiry: "2025-02-21",
|
||||
startTs: 1010,
|
||||
endTs: 1120,
|
||||
members: ["p2"],
|
||||
totalSize: 12,
|
||||
totalPremium: 2500,
|
||||
placements: placements({ bb: 1 })
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
const legs = [near, far];
|
||||
const summary = summarizeStructure(legs);
|
||||
expect(summary?.type).toBe("roll");
|
||||
|
||||
const plan = planStructurePacket(legs, summary!, 500);
|
||||
const packet = buildStructureFlowPacket(plan!, summary!);
|
||||
|
||||
expect(packet.features.structure_expiries_count).toBe(2);
|
||||
expect(packet.features.roll_from_expiry).toBe("2025-01-17");
|
||||
expect(packet.features.roll_to_expiry).toBe("2025-02-21");
|
||||
expect(packet.features.roll_from_strike).toBe(450);
|
||||
expect(packet.features.roll_to_strike).toBe(455);
|
||||
expect(packet.features.roll_strike_delta).toBe(5);
|
||||
});
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -40,4 +40,20 @@ describe("structure summaries", () => {
|
|||
expect(summary?.type).toBe("strangle");
|
||||
expect(summary?.strikes).toBe(2);
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
test("detects rolls across expiries", () => {
|
||||
const summary = summarizeStructure([
|
||||
{
|
||||
...leg("c1", "C", 450),
|
||||
expiry: "2025-01-17"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
...leg("c2", "C", 455),
|
||||
expiry: "2025-02-21"
|
||||
}
|
||||
]);
|
||||
expect(summary?.type).toBe("roll");
|
||||
expect(summary?.rights).toBe("C");
|
||||
expect(summary?.strikes).toBe(2);
|
||||
});
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
Loading…
Add table
Add a link
Reference in a new issue