Codex changes

Co-authored-by: Codex
This commit is contained in:
dirtydishes 2026-02-03 19:36:19 -05:00
parent a82db56ab6
commit aa0e651130
5 changed files with 431 additions and 243 deletions

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import type { ClassifierHitEvent, FlowPacket } from "@islandflow/types";
export const scoreAlert = (
packet: FlowPacket,
hits: ClassifierHitEvent[]
): { score: number; severity: string } => {
const premium =
typeof packet.features.total_premium === "number" ? packet.features.total_premium : 0;
const premiumScore = Math.min(70, Math.round(premium / 1000));
const maxConfidence = hits.reduce((max, hit) => Math.max(max, hit.confidence), 0);
const confidenceScore = Math.round(maxConfidence * 20);
const hitScore = Math.min(20, hits.length * 5);
const score = Math.max(0, Math.min(100, premiumScore + confidenceScore + hitScore));
const severity = score >= 80 ? "high" : score >= 45 ? "medium" : "low";
return { score, severity };
};

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@ -75,6 +75,7 @@ import {
shouldEmitStructurePacket, shouldEmitStructurePacket,
type LegEvidence type LegEvidence
} from "./structure-packets"; } from "./structure-packets";
import { scoreAlert } from "./alert-scoring";
const service = "compute"; const service = "compute";
const logger = createLogger({ service }); const logger = createLogger({ service });
@ -797,18 +798,6 @@ const flushCluster = async (
}); });
}; };
const scoreAlert = (packet: FlowPacket, hits: ClassifierHitEvent[]): { score: number; severity: string } => {
const premium =
typeof packet.features.total_premium === "number" ? packet.features.total_premium : 0;
const premiumScore = Math.min(70, Math.round(premium / 1000));
const maxConfidence = hits.reduce((max, hit) => Math.max(max, hit.confidence), 0);
const confidenceScore = Math.round(maxConfidence * 20);
const hitScore = Math.min(20, hits.length * 5);
const score = Math.max(0, Math.min(100, premiumScore + confidenceScore + hitScore));
const severity = score >= 80 ? "high" : score >= 45 ? "medium" : "low";
return { score, severity };
};
const emitClassifiers = async ( const emitClassifiers = async (
clickhouse: ReturnType<typeof createClickHouseClient>, clickhouse: ReturnType<typeof createClickHouseClient>,
js: Awaited<ReturnType<typeof connectJetStreamWithRetry>>["js"], js: Awaited<ReturnType<typeof connectJetStreamWithRetry>>["js"],

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import { describe, expect, it } from "bun:test";
import type { ClassifierHitEvent } from "@islandflow/types";
import { scoreAlert } from "../src/alert-scoring";
import { buildFlowPacket } from "./helpers";
const hit = (confidence: number): ClassifierHitEvent =>
({
source_ts: 1,
ingest_ts: 1,
seq: 1,
trace_id: `hit:${confidence}`,
classifier_id: "test",
confidence,
direction: "neutral",
explanations: ["test"]
}) satisfies ClassifierHitEvent;
describe("alert scoring", () => {
it("classifies <45 as low", () => {
const packet = buildFlowPacket({
features: {
total_premium: 44_000
}
});
const result = scoreAlert(packet, []);
expect(result.score).toBe(44);
expect(result.severity).toBe("low");
});
it("classifies >=45 as medium", () => {
const packet = buildFlowPacket({
features: {
total_premium: 45_000
}
});
const result = scoreAlert(packet, []);
expect(result.score).toBe(45);
expect(result.severity).toBe("medium");
});
it("classifies >=80 as high", () => {
const packet = buildFlowPacket({
features: {
total_premium: 65_000
}
});
const result = scoreAlert(packet, [hit(0.5)]);
expect(result.score).toBe(80);
expect(result.severity).toBe("high");
});
it("keeps 79 as medium", () => {
const packet = buildFlowPacket({
features: {
total_premium: 64_000
}
});
const result = scoreAlert(packet, [hit(0.5)]);
expect(result.score).toBe(79);
expect(result.severity).toBe("medium");
});
});

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@ -1,249 +1,296 @@
import { describe, expect, test } from "bun:test"; import { describe, expect, it } from "bun:test";
import type { FlowPacket } from "@islandflow/types"; import { evaluateClassifiers } from "../src/classifiers";
import { evaluateClassifiers, type ClassifierConfig } from "../src/classifiers"; import { buildFlowPacket, getHit, TEST_CLASSIFIER_CONFIG } from "./helpers";
const baseConfig: ClassifierConfig = { const expectExplainable = (hit: NonNullable<ReturnType<typeof getHit>>) => {
sweepMinPremium: 40_000, expect(hit.confidence).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(0);
sweepMinCount: 3, expect(hit.confidence).toBeLessThanOrEqual(1);
sweepMinPremiumZ: 2, expect(hit.direction.length).toBeGreaterThan(0);
spikeMinPremium: 20_000, expect(hit.explanations.length).toBeGreaterThan(0);
spikeMinSize: 400, expect(hit.explanations.join(" ")).toMatch(/Likely|Consistent with|Unusual/i);
spikeMinPremiumZ: 2.5,
spikeMinSizeZ: 2,
zMinSamples: 12,
minNbboCoverage: 0.5,
minAggressorRatio: 0.55,
zeroDteMaxAtmPct: 0.01,
zeroDteMinPremium: 20_000,
zeroDteMinSize: 400
}; };
const DEFAULT_TS = Date.UTC(2024, 0, 2); describe("compute classifiers", () => {
it("detects large bullish call sweep", () => {
const packet = buildFlowPacket({
id: "flowpacket:sweep-call",
features: {
option_contract_id: "SPY-2025-02-01-450-C",
count: 5,
window_ms: 500,
total_size: 1200,
total_premium: 85_000,
first_price: 1.0,
last_price: 1.05,
nbbo_coverage_ratio: 0.9,
nbbo_aggressive_buy_ratio: 0.65,
nbbo_aggressive_sell_ratio: 0.15
}
});
const buildPacket = ( const hits = evaluateClassifiers(packet, TEST_CLASSIFIER_CONFIG);
overrides: Record<string, string | number | boolean> const hit = getHit(hits, "large_bullish_call_sweep");
): FlowPacket => { expect(hit).not.toBeNull();
return { expect(hit?.direction).toBe("bullish");
source_ts: DEFAULT_TS, expectExplainable(hit!);
ingest_ts: DEFAULT_TS, });
seq: 1,
trace_id: "trace", it("detects large bearish put sweep", () => {
id: "packet", const packet = buildFlowPacket({
members: ["m1"], id: "flowpacket:sweep-put",
features: {
option_contract_id: "SPY-2025-02-01-450-P",
count: 4,
window_ms: 420,
total_size: 900,
total_premium: 60_000,
first_price: 2.0,
last_price: 2.15,
nbbo_coverage_ratio: 0.85,
nbbo_aggressive_buy_ratio: 0.2,
nbbo_aggressive_sell_ratio: 0.7
}
});
const hits = evaluateClassifiers(packet, TEST_CLASSIFIER_CONFIG);
const hit = getHit(hits, "large_bearish_put_sweep");
expect(hit).not.toBeNull();
expect(hit?.direction).toBe("bearish");
expectExplainable(hit!);
});
it("detects unusual contract spike", () => {
const packet = buildFlowPacket({
id: "flowpacket:spike",
features: {
option_contract_id: "NVDA-2025-02-21-600-C",
count: 2,
window_ms: 200,
total_size: 520,
total_premium: 30_000,
nbbo_coverage_ratio: 0.6,
nbbo_aggressive_buy_ratio: 0.6,
nbbo_aggressive_sell_ratio: 0.1
}
});
const hits = evaluateClassifiers(packet, TEST_CLASSIFIER_CONFIG);
const hit = getHit(hits, "unusual_contract_spike");
expect(hit).not.toBeNull();
expect(hit?.direction).toBe("neutral");
expectExplainable(hit!);
});
it("detects large call sell overwrite (sell-side skew)", () => {
const packet = buildFlowPacket({
id: "flowpacket:overwrite",
features: {
option_contract_id: "AAPL-2025-02-21-200-C",
count: 3,
window_ms: 300,
total_size: 900,
total_premium: 35_000,
nbbo_coverage_ratio: 0.75,
nbbo_aggressive_buy_ratio: 0.1,
nbbo_aggressive_sell_ratio: 0.75
}
});
const hits = evaluateClassifiers(packet, TEST_CLASSIFIER_CONFIG);
const hit = getHit(hits, "large_call_sell_overwrite");
expect(hit).not.toBeNull();
expect(hit?.direction).toBe("bearish");
expectExplainable(hit!);
});
it("detects large put sell write (sell-side skew)", () => {
const packet = buildFlowPacket({
id: "flowpacket:put-write",
features: {
option_contract_id: "AAPL-2025-02-21-200-P",
count: 3,
window_ms: 300,
total_size: 850,
total_premium: 32_000,
nbbo_coverage_ratio: 0.75,
nbbo_aggressive_buy_ratio: 0.1,
nbbo_aggressive_sell_ratio: 0.72
}
});
const hits = evaluateClassifiers(packet, TEST_CLASSIFIER_CONFIG);
const hit = getHit(hits, "large_put_sell_write");
expect(hit).not.toBeNull();
expect(hit?.direction).toBe("bullish");
expectExplainable(hit!);
});
it("detects far-dated conviction (>=60 DTE)", () => {
const packet = buildFlowPacket({
id: "flowpacket:far-dated",
source_ts: Date.parse("2025-01-01T14:30:00Z"),
features: {
option_contract_id: "SPY-2025-04-10-450-C",
count: 2,
window_ms: 250,
total_size: 650,
total_premium: 28_000,
nbbo_coverage_ratio: 0.7,
nbbo_aggressive_buy_ratio: 0.6,
nbbo_aggressive_sell_ratio: 0.2
}
});
const hits = evaluateClassifiers(packet, TEST_CLASSIFIER_CONFIG);
const hit = getHit(hits, "far_dated_conviction");
expect(hit).not.toBeNull();
expect(hit?.direction).toBe("bullish");
expectExplainable(hit!);
});
it("detects 0DTE gamma punch when expiry matches packet day and near ATM", () => {
const packet = buildFlowPacket({
id: "flowpacket:zero-dte",
source_ts: Date.parse("2025-01-17T15:30:00Z"),
features: { features: {
option_contract_id: "SPY-2025-01-17-450-C", option_contract_id: "SPY-2025-01-17-450-C",
count: 3, count: 3,
total_premium: 1000, window_ms: 350,
total_size: 20,
first_price: 1,
last_price: 1.01,
start_ts: DEFAULT_TS - 500,
end_ts: DEFAULT_TS,
window_ms: 500,
...overrides
},
join_quality: {}
};
};
describe("classifier z-score behavior", () => {
test("spike hit triggers on z-score even when absolute thresholds fail", () => {
const packet = buildPacket({
total_premium_z: 3.2,
total_premium_baseline_n: 20,
total_size_z: 0.4,
total_size_baseline_n: 20
});
const hits = evaluateClassifiers(packet, baseConfig);
expect(hits.some((hit) => hit.classifier_id === "unusual_contract_spike")).toBe(true);
});
test("sweep hit triggers on premium z-score when baseline is ready", () => {
const packet = buildPacket({
total_premium_z: 2.4,
total_premium_baseline_n: 20
});
const hits = evaluateClassifiers(packet, baseConfig);
expect(hits.some((hit) => hit.classifier_id === "large_bullish_call_sweep")).toBe(true);
});
test("sweep hit does not trigger when baseline is insufficient", () => {
const packet = buildPacket({
total_premium_z: 3,
total_premium_baseline_n: 4
});
const hits = evaluateClassifiers(packet, baseConfig);
expect(hits.some((hit) => hit.classifier_id === "large_bullish_call_sweep")).toBe(false);
});
test("aggressor mix adjusts sweep confidence", () => {
const basePacket = {
total_premium: 120_000,
total_size: 900,
count: 4,
nbbo_coverage_ratio: 0.8
};
const lowAgg = buildPacket({
...basePacket,
nbbo_aggressive_buy_ratio: 0.2,
nbbo_aggressive_sell_ratio: 0.2
});
const highAgg = buildPacket({
...basePacket,
nbbo_aggressive_buy_ratio: 0.7,
nbbo_aggressive_sell_ratio: 0.3
});
const lowHit = evaluateClassifiers(lowAgg, baseConfig).find(
(hit) => hit.classifier_id === "large_bullish_call_sweep"
);
const highHit = evaluateClassifiers(highAgg, baseConfig).find(
(hit) => hit.classifier_id === "large_bullish_call_sweep"
);
expect(lowHit).toBeTruthy();
expect(highHit).toBeTruthy();
expect((highHit?.confidence ?? 0)).toBeGreaterThan(lowHit?.confidence ?? 0);
});
});
describe("classifier structure and positioning signals", () => {
test("call overwrite triggers on sell-side aggressor mix", () => {
const packet = buildPacket({
option_contract_id: "SPY-2024-03-15-450-C",
total_premium: 80_000,
total_size: 800, total_size: 800,
nbbo_coverage_ratio: 0.9, total_premium: 50_000,
nbbo_aggressive_sell_ratio: 0.7, underlying_mid: 450.5,
nbbo_aggressive_buy_ratio: 0.3 nbbo_coverage_ratio: 0.8,
}); nbbo_aggressive_buy_ratio: 0.65,
const hits = evaluateClassifiers(packet, baseConfig); nbbo_aggressive_sell_ratio: 0.15
expect(hits.some((hit) => hit.classifier_id === "large_call_sell_overwrite")).toBe(true); }
}); });
test("put write triggers on sell-side aggressor mix", () => { const hits = evaluateClassifiers(packet, TEST_CLASSIFIER_CONFIG);
const packet = buildPacket({ const hit = getHit(hits, "zero_dte_gamma_punch");
option_contract_id: "SPY-2024-03-15-450-P", expect(hit).not.toBeNull();
total_premium: 75_000, expect(hit?.direction).toBe("bullish");
total_size: 700, expectExplainable(hit!);
nbbo_coverage_ratio: 0.85,
nbbo_aggressive_sell_ratio: 0.68,
nbbo_aggressive_buy_ratio: 0.32
});
const hits = evaluateClassifiers(packet, baseConfig);
expect(hits.some((hit) => hit.classifier_id === "large_put_sell_write")).toBe(true);
}); });
test("straddle classifier triggers on structure tag", () => { it("detects structure straddle and strangle packets", () => {
const packet = buildPacket({ const base = {
packet_kind: "structure", packet_kind: "structure",
structure_type: "straddle", structure_legs: 4,
structure_legs: 2, structure_strikes: 2,
structure_strikes: 1, structure_strike_span: 5,
structure_rights: "C/P", total_size: 600,
structure_strike_span: 0 total_premium: 30_000,
nbbo_coverage_ratio: 0.7,
nbbo_aggressive_buy_ratio: 0.55,
nbbo_aggressive_sell_ratio: 0.35
} as const;
const straddlePacket = buildFlowPacket({
id: "flowpacket:straddle",
features: {
...base,
structure_type: "straddle"
}
}); });
const hits = evaluateClassifiers(packet, baseConfig); const stranglePacket = buildFlowPacket({
expect(hits.some((hit) => hit.classifier_id === "straddle")).toBe(true); id: "flowpacket:strangle",
features: {
...base,
structure_type: "strangle",
structure_strike_span: 12
}
}); });
test("structure classifiers are suppressed on per-contract packets", () => { const straddleHits = evaluateClassifiers(straddlePacket, TEST_CLASSIFIER_CONFIG);
const packet = buildPacket({ const strangleHits = evaluateClassifiers(stranglePacket, TEST_CLASSIFIER_CONFIG);
structure_type: "straddle",
structure_legs: 2, const straddleHit = getHit(straddleHits, "straddle");
structure_strikes: 1, const strangleHit = getHit(strangleHits, "strangle");
structure_rights: "C/P",
structure_strike_span: 0 expect(straddleHit).not.toBeNull();
}); expect(strangleHit).not.toBeNull();
const hits = evaluateClassifiers(packet, baseConfig); expectExplainable(straddleHit!);
expect(hits.some((hit) => hit.classifier_id === "straddle")).toBe(false); expectExplainable(strangleHit!);
}); });
test("vertical spread infers direction from aggressor skew", () => { it("detects vertical spread structure packets and infers direction from aggressor skew", () => {
const packet = buildPacket({ const packet = buildFlowPacket({
id: "flowpacket:vertical",
features: {
packet_kind: "structure", packet_kind: "structure",
structure_type: "vertical", structure_type: "vertical",
structure_legs: 2, structure_rights: "C",
structure_legs: 4,
structure_strikes: 2, structure_strikes: 2,
structure_rights: "C",
structure_strike_span: 5,
total_premium: 55_000,
total_size: 600,
nbbo_coverage_ratio: 0.85,
nbbo_aggressive_buy_ratio: 0.7,
nbbo_aggressive_sell_ratio: 0.3
});
const hits = evaluateClassifiers(packet, baseConfig);
const hit = hits.find((candidate) => candidate.classifier_id === "vertical_spread");
expect(hit?.direction).toBe("bullish");
});
test("ladder accumulation triggers on multi-strike structures", () => {
const packet = buildPacket({
packet_kind: "structure",
structure_type: "ladder",
structure_legs: 3,
structure_strikes: 3,
structure_rights: "C",
structure_strike_span: 10, structure_strike_span: 10,
total_premium: 60_000, total_size: 900,
total_size: 650 total_premium: 45_000,
});
const hits = evaluateClassifiers(packet, baseConfig);
expect(hits.some((hit) => hit.classifier_id === "ladder_accumulation")).toBe(true);
});
test("roll classifier triggers on cross-expiry structure packets", () => {
const packet = buildPacket({
packet_kind: "structure",
structure_type: "roll",
structure_legs: 2,
structure_strikes: 2,
structure_rights: "C",
structure_strike_span: 5,
total_premium: 70_000,
total_size: 800,
nbbo_coverage_ratio: 0.85,
nbbo_aggressive_buy_ratio: 0.7,
nbbo_aggressive_sell_ratio: 0.3,
roll_from_expiry: "2025-01-17",
roll_to_expiry: "2025-02-21",
roll_from_strike: 450,
roll_to_strike: 455,
roll_strike_delta: 5,
roll_expiry_days_delta: 35
});
const hits = evaluateClassifiers(packet, baseConfig);
const hit = hits.find((candidate) => candidate.classifier_id === "roll_up_down_out");
expect(hit).toBeTruthy();
expect(hit?.direction).toBe("bullish");
});
test("far-dated conviction triggers on 60DTE threshold", () => {
const packet = buildPacket({
option_contract_id: "SPY-2024-04-19-450-C",
end_ts: DEFAULT_TS,
total_premium: 70_000,
total_size: 800
});
const hits = evaluateClassifiers(packet, baseConfig);
const hit = hits.find((candidate) => candidate.classifier_id === "far_dated_conviction");
expect(hit?.direction).toBe("bullish");
});
test("zero dte gamma punch triggers when ATM and large", () => {
const packet = buildPacket({
option_contract_id: "SPY-2024-01-02-450-C",
total_premium: 35_000,
total_size: 600,
underlying_mid: 450,
nbbo_coverage_ratio: 0.8, nbbo_coverage_ratio: 0.8,
nbbo_aggressive_buy_ratio: 0.7, nbbo_aggressive_buy_ratio: 0.7,
nbbo_aggressive_sell_ratio: 0.3 nbbo_aggressive_sell_ratio: 0.2
}
}); });
const hits = evaluateClassifiers(packet, baseConfig);
const hit = hits.find((candidate) => candidate.classifier_id === "zero_dte_gamma_punch"); const hits = evaluateClassifiers(packet, TEST_CLASSIFIER_CONFIG);
const hit = getHit(hits, "vertical_spread");
expect(hit).not.toBeNull();
expect(hit?.direction).toBe("bullish"); expect(hit?.direction).toBe("bullish");
expectExplainable(hit!);
});
it("detects ladder accumulation packets", () => {
const packet = buildFlowPacket({
id: "flowpacket:ladder",
features: {
packet_kind: "structure",
structure_type: "ladder",
structure_rights: "C",
structure_legs: 6,
structure_strikes: 4,
structure_strike_span: 15,
total_size: 1200,
total_premium: 55_000,
nbbo_coverage_ratio: 0.65,
nbbo_aggressive_buy_ratio: 0.6,
nbbo_aggressive_sell_ratio: 0.2
}
});
const hits = evaluateClassifiers(packet, TEST_CLASSIFIER_CONFIG);
const hit = getHit(hits, "ladder_accumulation");
expect(hit).not.toBeNull();
expect(hit?.direction).toBe("bullish");
expectExplainable(hit!);
});
it("detects roll up/down/out structure packets", () => {
const packet = buildFlowPacket({
id: "flowpacket:roll",
features: {
packet_kind: "structure",
structure_type: "roll",
structure_rights: "C",
underlying_id: "SPY",
roll_from_expiry: "2025-02-21",
roll_to_expiry: "2025-03-21",
roll_from_strike: 440,
roll_to_strike: 450,
roll_strike_delta: 10,
roll_expiry_days_delta: 28,
total_size: 700,
total_premium: 38_000,
nbbo_coverage_ratio: 0.7,
nbbo_aggressive_buy_ratio: 0.6,
nbbo_aggressive_sell_ratio: 0.3
}
});
const hits = evaluateClassifiers(packet, TEST_CLASSIFIER_CONFIG);
const hit = getHit(hits, "roll_up_down_out");
expect(hit).not.toBeNull();
expect(hit?.direction).toBe("bullish");
expectExplainable(hit!);
expect(hit!.explanations[0]).toMatch(/Consistent with/i);
}); });
}); });

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import type { ClassifierConfig, ClassifierHit } from "../src/classifiers";
import type { FlowPacket } from "@islandflow/types";
export const TEST_CLASSIFIER_CONFIG: ClassifierConfig = {
sweepMinPremium: 40_000,
sweepMinCount: 3,
sweepMinPremiumZ: 2,
spikeMinPremium: 20_000,
spikeMinSize: 400,
spikeMinPremiumZ: 2.5,
spikeMinSizeZ: 2,
zMinSamples: 12,
minNbboCoverage: 0.5,
minAggressorRatio: 0.55,
zeroDteMaxAtmPct: 0.01,
zeroDteMinPremium: 20_000,
zeroDteMinSize: 400
};
export const buildFlowPacket = (opts: {
id?: string;
source_ts?: number;
ingest_ts?: number;
seq?: number;
trace_id?: string;
members?: string[];
features?: FlowPacket["features"];
join_quality?: FlowPacket["join_quality"];
} = {}): FlowPacket => {
const id = opts.id ?? "flowpacket:test";
const source_ts = opts.source_ts ?? Date.parse("2025-01-01T14:30:00Z");
const ingest_ts = opts.ingest_ts ?? source_ts;
const seq = opts.seq ?? 1;
const trace_id = opts.trace_id ?? `trace:${id}`;
return {
source_ts,
ingest_ts,
seq,
trace_id,
id,
members: opts.members ?? ["print:1", "print:2"],
features: {
count: 1,
window_ms: 250,
total_premium: 0,
total_size: 0,
first_price: 0,
last_price: 0,
total_premium_z: 0,
total_size_z: 0,
total_premium_baseline_n: 0,
total_size_baseline_n: 0,
nbbo_coverage_ratio: 0,
nbbo_aggressive_buy_ratio: 0,
nbbo_aggressive_sell_ratio: 0,
underlying_mid: 0,
...opts.features
},
join_quality: {
...opts.join_quality
}
};
};
export const getHit = (hits: ClassifierHit[], id: string): ClassifierHit | null => {
return hits.find((hit) => hit.classifier_id === id) ?? null;
};