48 lines
3.2 KiB
Markdown
48 lines
3.2 KiB
Markdown
# Smart Money / Smart Flow Roadmap
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This roadmap breaks `docs/plans/smart-flow-architecture-review.md` into implementation-sized phases. The recommended direction is Option B: keep the working stack, but rebuild the domain pipeline around observations, evidence clusters, cautious hypotheses, confidence, alternatives, abstention, replay evaluation, and user-facing insight projections.
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## Source Documents
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- Architecture plan: [`docs/plans/smart-flow-architecture-review.md`](../../plans/smart-flow-architecture-review.md)
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- Research report: [`docs/research-docs/smart-flow-market-mechanics.md`](../../research-docs/smart-flow-market-mechanics.md)
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- Research architecture review copy: [`docs/research-docs/smart-flow-architecture-review.md`](../../research-docs/smart-flow-architecture-review.md)
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The research documents are background and rationale only. Scope comes from the Beads issue and the phase document.
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## Core Constraints
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- Do not treat "smart money" as a canonical fact emitted by the system.
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- Distinguish direct facts, evidence, hypotheses, confidence, alternatives, and abstention.
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- Preserve evidence and uncertainty in storage, API, websocket, and UI surfaces.
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- Keep Redis as hot cache only, not hidden baseline truth.
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- Make replay evaluation the acceptance gate before expanding UI confidence.
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- Keep historical or research-grade calibration as future work, not an MVP dependency.
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## Phase Sequence
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| Phase | Beads issue | Depends on | Purpose |
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| --- | --- | --- | --- |
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| 01 - Contracts and vocabulary | `islandflow-zxh.1` | None; safe parallel with `islandflow-259.1` | Define evidence/hypothesis/insight contracts and retire canonical overconfidence. |
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| 02 - Evidence clustering and features | `islandflow-zxh.2` | `islandflow-259.2` | Extract eligibility, evidence facts, clusters, and traceable features. |
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| 03 - Hypothesis scoring and abstention | `islandflow-zxh.3` | `islandflow-259.3` | Score cautious hypotheses and represent abstention/alternatives. |
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| 04 - Replay evaluation and golden tests | `islandflow-zxh.4` | `islandflow-259.4` | Validate derived outputs through deterministic replay and golden fixtures. |
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| 05 - API/UI explainability | `islandflow-zxh.5` | `islandflow-259.5` | Expose evidence-backed insights and uncertainty to API, WS, and UI. |
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| 99 - Future calibration | `islandflow-zxh.6` | `islandflow-zxh.5`, `islandflow-259.6` | Calibrate confidence and policy behavior later with richer datasets. |
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## PR Split Notes
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Several phases are broad enough to split before implementation:
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- `islandflow-zxh.2.1` - Split smart-flow phase 02a: eligibility and evidence facts
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- `islandflow-zxh.2.2` - Split smart-flow phase 02b: clustering and feature vectors
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- `islandflow-zxh.3.1` - Split smart-flow phase 03a: hypothesis score vectors
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- `islandflow-zxh.3.2` - Split smart-flow phase 03b: abstention and insight projection
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- `islandflow-zxh.5.1` - Split smart-flow phase 05a: evidence API and websocket surfaces
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- `islandflow-zxh.5.2` - Split smart-flow phase 05b: UI explainability surfaces
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If an implementation PR crosses contracts, compute, storage, API, and UI in one change, stop and split it.
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## Matching Beads Epic
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- `islandflow-zxh` - Plan smart-money to smart-flow implementation phases
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