dirtydishes/islandflow
1
0
Fork 0
Code Issues 3 Pull requests 5 Projects Releases Packages Wiki Activity Actions
islandflow/docs/implementation/smart-money/00-roadmap.md

2.6 KiB
Raw Blame History

Smart Money / Smart Flow Roadmap

This roadmap breaks docs/plans/smart-flow-architecture-review.md into implementation-sized phases. The recommended direction is Option B: keep the working stack, but rebuild the domain pipeline around observations, evidence clusters, cautious hypotheses, confidence, alternatives, abstention, replay evaluation, and user-facing insight projections.

Core Constraints

  • Do not treat "smart money" as a canonical fact emitted by the system.
  • Distinguish direct facts, evidence, hypotheses, confidence, alternatives, and abstention.
  • Preserve evidence and uncertainty in storage, API, websocket, and UI surfaces.
  • Keep Redis as hot cache only, not hidden baseline truth.
  • Make replay evaluation the acceptance gate before expanding UI confidence.
  • Keep historical or research-grade calibration as future work, not an MVP dependency.

Phase Sequence

Phase Beads issue Depends on Purpose
01 - Contracts and vocabulary islandflow-zxh.1 islandflow-259.1 Define evidence/hypothesis/insight contracts and retire canonical overconfidence.
02 - Evidence clustering and features islandflow-zxh.2 islandflow-259.2 Extract eligibility, evidence facts, clusters, and traceable features.
03 - Hypothesis scoring and abstention islandflow-zxh.3 islandflow-259.3 Score cautious hypotheses and represent abstention/alternatives.
04 - Replay evaluation and golden tests islandflow-zxh.4 islandflow-259.4 Validate derived outputs through deterministic replay and golden fixtures.
05 - API/UI explainability islandflow-zxh.5 islandflow-259.5 Expose evidence-backed insights and uncertainty to API, WS, and UI.
99 - Future calibration islandflow-zxh.6 islandflow-zxh.5, islandflow-259.6 Calibrate confidence and policy behavior later with richer datasets.

PR Split Notes

Several phases are broad enough to split before implementation:

  • islandflow-zxh.2.1 - Split smart-flow phase 02a: eligibility and evidence facts
  • islandflow-zxh.2.2 - Split smart-flow phase 02b: clustering and feature vectors
  • islandflow-zxh.3.1 - Split smart-flow phase 03a: hypothesis score vectors
  • islandflow-zxh.3.2 - Split smart-flow phase 03b: abstention and insight projection
  • islandflow-zxh.5.1 - Split smart-flow phase 05a: evidence API and websocket surfaces
  • islandflow-zxh.5.2 - Split smart-flow phase 05b: UI explainability surfaces

If an implementation PR crosses contracts, compute, storage, API, and UI in one change, stop and split it.

Matching Beads Epic

  • islandflow-zxh - Plan smart-money to smart-flow implementation phases